Compiled industry statistics
AR & virtual try-on statistics (2026)
AR and virtual try-on is a fast-growing market — valued at about $5.88B in 2024 and projected at roughly $38.55B by 2030 — and the published evidence says it works: merchants using 3D commerce report an average 94% increase in conversions, addressing an online-returns problem where about 19.3% of online sales come back.
The figures below are reported by named third parties and compiled here — not measured by ARViewer.
Methodology & attribution. Every statistic on this page is a figure reported by the named third party shown beside it (NRF & Happy Returns, Statista, Volumental via WWD, Shopify, and Grand View Research), with the source year and an outbound link. These are not measured or audited by ARViewer; they are compiled here for reference. Where a source reports a range or a projection, the figure is quoted as that source states it.
The headline numbers
US retail returns in 2025
NRF & Happy Returns, 2025
of online sales are returned (estimated)
NRF & Happy Returns, 2025
of online shoe buyers have returned a pair that didn't fit
Volumental via WWD, 2021
average increase in conversions with 3D commerce
Shopify
projected AR-in-ecommerce market by 2030
Grand View Research
projected CAGR, 2025–2030
Grand View Research
The returns problem AR addresses
The business case for virtual try-on starts with returns. Returns are a large and growing cost for retailers, and the categories AR try-on targets — apparel and footwear — are among the most affected.
- •US retail returns reached an estimated $849.9 billion in 2025, and an estimated 19.3% of online sales are returned (NRF & Happy Returns, "2025 Retail Returns Landscape," Oct 2025).
- •Clothing and footwear are among the most-returned online categories (Statista).
- •57% of online shoe buyers have returned a pair that didn't fit, and 20% aren't confident an online pair will fit (Volumental footwear survey, 2021, via WWD).
What 3D/AR try-on does for conversion
On the upside of the funnel, letting shoppers see a product in 3D or on themselves in AR is reported to lift conversion well above static product photos.
- •Merchants using 3D commerce see an average 94% increase in conversions (Shopify).
Market trajectory
The category these experiences sit in is growing quickly, with virtual try-on as its leading use.
- •The augmented reality in e-commerce market was about $5.88 billion in 2024 and is projected at roughly $38.55 billion by 2030, a CAGR of about 35.8% (2025–2030). Virtual try-on was the largest application segment in 2024 (Grand View Research, "Augmented Reality In E-Commerce Market").
All figures, with sources
| Metric | Figure | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| US retail returns | ≈ $849.9B | NRF & Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape | 2025 |
| Share of online sales returned | ≈ 19.3% | NRF & Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape | 2025 |
| Most-returned online categories include clothing & footwear | Qualitative | Statista | 2025 |
| Online shoe buyers who returned a pair that didn't fit | 57% | Volumental survey via WWD | 2021 |
| Shoppers not confident an online pair will fit | 20% | Volumental survey via WWD | 2021 |
| Average conversion increase with 3D commerce | +94% | Shopify | — |
| AR-in-ecommerce market size | ≈ $5.88B | Grand View Research | 2024 |
| Projected AR-in-ecommerce market size | ≈ $38.55B | Grand View Research | 2030 (proj.) |
| Projected CAGR | ≈ 35.8% | Grand View Research | 2025–2030 |
For a related sister-site data deep-dive, see 3D commerce data on view-ar.com, and for the mechanics behind these experiences see how mobile AR try-on works.
Frequently asked questions
How much do online returns cost retailers?
According to the NRF and Happy Returns 2025 Retail Returns Landscape (October 2025), US retail returns reached an estimated $849.9 billion in 2025, and an estimated 19.3% of online sales are returned. Apparel and footwear are among the most-returned online categories.
Does AR/3D try-on increase conversion?
Shopify reports that merchants using 3D commerce see an average 94% increase in conversions. This is a figure reported by Shopify, compiled here rather than measured by ARViewer.
How fast is the AR shopping market growing?
Grand View Research values the augmented reality in e-commerce market at about $5.88 billion in 2024 and projects roughly $38.55 billion by 2030, a CAGR of about 35.8% from 2025 to 2030. Virtual try-on was the largest application segment in 2024.
Are these arviewer's own numbers?
No. Every figure on this page is a statistic reported by a named third party — NRF and Happy Returns, Statista, Volumental via WWD, Shopify, and Grand View Research — and is compiled here with its source and year. ARViewer did not measure these figures itself.
Related
Last updated June 2026 · arviewer editorial · figures compiled from third-party sources